Notre Dame vs. NC State football preview and prediction: 3 keys for Irish vs. Wolfpack

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — How good is Notre Dame? Marcus Freeman wants to know, too.

By Saturday afternoon, the coach should know as the Irish face their first test in their first road game of the season. When No. 10 Notre Dame (2-0) kicks off at NC State (1-0) at noon ET (ABC), it essentially will mark the start of the regular season after what amounted to two warmup games against Navy and Tennessee State.

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“I don’t want to say that the wins over Navy and Tennessee State don’t (matter), they do,” Freeman said. “But more than the wins, it’s looking at us internally and saying, ‘OK, did we execute on this assignment? Why or why not?’”

It takes a deeper dive to find flaws in Notre Dame’s performances to date — that’s what a 98-6 scoring margin will do — but Freeman didn’t have to look too hard. On Tennessee State’s opening drive last week, Freeman counted three missed assignments, including a missed blitz check and failing to get 11 players on the field. There was a pass interference call, too.

The drive ended in a field goal. The consequences get more serious Saturday at Carter-Finley Stadium.

“And that’s the challenge … is that it’s not the opponent as much as really looking at yourself and saying, ‘On every single play, did we do our job? All 11, did you do your job? Yes or no?’” Freeman said. “If you didn’t, let’s figure out why and get it corrected with a sense of urgency.”

If Notre Dame takes the power of self-correction to Raleigh, it should show. But the reverse may be true, too.

Here are three keys to Notre Dame-NC State, plus a prediction.

Past problems can’t tense up Hartman

Sam Hartman has thrown more interceptions against NC State than any other opponent.

How relevant will those six picks be against defensive coordinator Tony Gibson and his 3-3-5 defense that can create confusion at the snap? That depends on what Irish offensive coordinator Gerad Parker asks from Hartman in his fourth start against the Wolfpack. Because if Notre Dame calls on Hartman to throw 40-plus passes, he’s probably going to let NC State get one.

There are multiple reasons Hartman has led 11 touchdown drives in 12 total possessions this season. None of those are Parker telling Hartman to revert to being a volume passer like he was at Wake Forest. Hartman attempted 121 passes in his three starts against NC State, including 47 and 48 in the past two.

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“We don’t want to bring up ghosts,” Parker said. “We’re going to make sure we put him and the rest of the offense (in position) to play to the best of their abilities and attack the defense that we have this week. This is one big challenge for us and we know it.”

If Hartman struggles, it might say more about the execution in front of him than render a verdict on the quarterback’s play. Notre Dame’s offensive line has been adequate but inconsistent through two weeks, including a boom-or-bust performance against Tennessee State. Right tackle Blake Fisher appeared to struggle, including a physical beat in the second half that turned into Steve Angeli getting drilled.

Notre Dame can’t let Hartman take those kinds of shots. It also knows that it had better clean up its execution as it faces its first Power 5 opponent of the season. Mistakes could turn into touchdowns against Navy or Tennessee State. Against NC State, the same miscue likely ends in a sack or worse.

“I think you say, ‘That window would’ve closed,’ or “Hey, we can’t start that way,’” Parker said. “Because there were some things at the start that we overcame with great plays, but at the same time, as things progress, that window tightens.”

GO DEEPER

How Marcus Freeman worked the sideline against Tennessee State

Will Armstrong reignite?

Freeman expected to defend this quarterback-coordinator battery two years ago when Notre Dame went to Virginia in mid-November to face Brennan Armstrong working in Robert Anae’s scheme. A rib injury put Armstrong in doubt for that night, but his stature turned everyone inside Scott Stadium into body language interpreters during warmups. Would he play? Would he not? The outcome depended on it.

The gravity of a healthy Armstrong was obvious. He had averaged 395 passing yards and four total touchdowns per game before Notre Dame arrived in Charlottesville, a byproduct of quarterback and coordinator working together. Ultimately, Armstrong couldn’t go. Notre Dame blew out Virginia 28-3.

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Still, the complexities of defending Armstrong stuck with Freeman.

“They have so many different personnel. They use guys in so many different positions,” Freeman said. “That’s the thing that’s challenging is that, yes, we’re going to get tempo, yes, Brennan Armstrong’s extremely talented. But you’re getting so many formations out of different personnels and so many different guys coming in the game.

“So, you have to almost play with a base defense and say, ‘All right, no matter who’s where, you’re going to play defense according to a picture,’ not to who’s in the game as much as, ‘OK, we’ve got to make sure we see the picture. Don’t worry about that’s a tight end or a running back or a wideout. What does the picture tell you?’ And then you game plan that way.”

When Armstrong and Anae separated last season, neither found much success. Armstrong’s passing production was virtually cut in half (he threw seven touchdowns with 12 interceptions) while Anae struggled at Syracuse. Now they’re together again at NC State, which means Notre Dame will get a taste of the scheme it thought it was going to face two years ago.

Armstrong is a legitimate dual threat, posting 19 carries for 96 yards and two touchdowns in an opening-weekend win over UConn. But it’s not clear his passing skills under Anae have returned. Armstrong was only 17-of-26 for 155 yards and no scores in Storrs. He should test Notre Dame’s secondary more than Navy or Tennessee State, but getting back to his 2021 form might take time.

“Patience and poise jump off,” defensive coordinator Al Golden said. “Doesn’t get rattled. Has enough arm strength to get the ball down the field, but he has the legs to create, and obviously a problem in the run game. Designed runs, draws and scrambles can all break your back.”

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Notre Dame final thoughts: RB depth, Hartman and the NC State test ahead

Irish secondary must pass first true test

The statistics tell no story for Notre Dame’s secondary. The group wishes they did.

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The Irish rank sixth nationally in opponent passer rating and seventh in passing yardage allowed through two games. Opposing quarterbacks have combined to complete 11-of-29 passes for 110 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. Those quarterbacks also run triple-option schemes or play at the FCS level.

As much as Notre Dame’s secondary believes it matches up well with the passing games to come at Ohio State and USC, it first has to show that against NC State.

“They’re going to get tested this week,” Freeman said. “We understand that. And NC State has some talented wideouts. They’ve got a lot of speed.”

If that’s true, NC State didn’t put it to full use in beating Connecticut, when seven of Armstrong’s 17 completions came on screen passes behind the line of scrimmage. He was 3-of-9 on passes of at least 10 yards. The curiosity for Notre Dame will be how the Irish line up to defend the Wolfpack after going heavy nickel last weekend against Tennessee State. Notre Dame had at least five defensive backs on the field for 50 of the 58 plays it defended.

If the Irish stick with nickel, it means more work for slot defensive backs Thomas Harper and Clarence Lewis, whose pick-six put a bow on the 56-3 blowout of Tennessee State. That also would mean less work for Jack Kiser, Notre Dame’s leading tackler against Navy who got just 14 snaps against Tennessee State. That’s the give-and-take Golden must figure out against the Wolfpack, but he can at least choose between two strengths in nickel and base rather than trying to mask a weakness.

“We know what we can do defensively,” Harper said. “We just gotta continue to get better and keep taking advantage of opportunities.”

GO DEEPER

Sampson: In Sam Hartman, the QB Notre Dame needed has finally arrived

Prediction

Even if the box scores flattered the Irish the past two weekends, Notre Dame looks the part of a national player in Freeman’s second season with Hartman at quarterback. The Irish are hardly perfect, but with an old quarterback and experienced defense, they should have enough to avoid an early trap at NC State, keeping the prospect of a megawatt home game against Ohio State alive for later this month. Look for Parker to find efficiency in his offensive balance, not leaning on Hartman too much in the process.

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Notre Dame 28, NC State 20

(Top photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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