ADP stock watch: Raheem Mostert, Gabe Davis and more late-preseason market movers

Publish date: 2024-06-14

If you’ve been drafting for a few weeks now, you know that ADP hasn’t shifted a lot lately, especially at the top of the boards. Are we actually, finally tuning out the noise of preseason games, training camp notes and coach speak? I’m not saying there isn’t valuable information in those summer nuggets, but people used to really overreact to any sign of praise or minor injury over the summer. In fact, maybe we’ve gone too far in the other direction: Along with a few big movers, I’ll discuss certain players’ lack of change despite some pretty big news. Usually ADP shifts like a see-saw – one player goes down, another goes up, and we’ll cover a couple of these situations as well.

Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor: He will miss the first four weeks of the season on the PUP list, and things remain sour between the star running back and ownership. This is a player I’m avoiding entirely as I’m the kind of manager who is happy to leave the headaches — and occasional big payoffs — to others. Remember, people thought it was acceptable risk to draft Michael Thomas around the seventh round in 2021, hoping he’d be back. I’m a fan of Taylor’s talent and he was a bounce-back candidate for me earlier in the month, but as was the case for me with Thomas two seasons ago, there is no round in which I’m comfortable taking on this risk.

Zack Moss: We’re seeing a (modest) compensatory increase in the ADP of other Colts backs like Moss, Deon Jackson, and rookie Evan Hull (though Jackson and Hull remain undrafted in the majority of leagues). Moss has been in the league only three years and has limited wear and tear (recent broken arm aside). He was a third-round draft pick by the Bills in 2020 and is on track to be the starter for Indy in Week 1. He finished the 2022 season for the Colts with four games of double-digit carries, building up to a fine fantasy finish of 114 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 18. One of the reasons I had liked Taylor this summer was the expected improvement in the overall ability of the Colts offense with new head coach Shane Steichen and new QB Anthony Richardson. Moss is RB67 — aka not being drafted in some leagues — but is definitely worth your last round flier pick.

Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert: Many people had been reserving their enthusiasm over any Dolphins RB until the Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor situations were resolved. With that last domino falling this past week, it was Jeff Wilson Jr. who saw a modest rise up draft boards. However, Wilson was unexpectedly placed on IR Thursday morning, opening the door for Mostert to step up. An eight-year veteran of the league, Mostert has been up and down for fantasy. He saw his highest usage ever last year with Miami (181 carries and 42 targets), yielding about 10 half-PPR fantasy points per game. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the field, this is a pass-first team, but grabbing Mostert at the end of drafts could provide a decent early-season floor at the flex position.

Washington Commanders

Terry McLaurin: Drafters are clearly worried about McLaurin’s assumed turf toe injury. We’ve seen these kinds of injuries linger for weeks, if not months. The team is still reporting optimism that he’ll be ready for Week 1, but 10 days out from the initial sprain, he’s still not practicing. With a fifth-round ADP, caution is warranted. I’m more comfortable with someone like Diontae Johnson there instead.

Jahan Dotson: As much as we like (healthy) McLaurin and hope he’s okay this season, we love to dream about the opportunities a lingering toe injury would create for Dotson. A first-round pick for Washington last year, Dotson excited fantasy players with his speed, route-running, competitive hands and overall athleticism. He had some ups and downs as a rookie, but also showed signs of being the versatile fantasy gem he was at Penn State. Improved QB play from Sam Howell could make Dotson the steal of the draft in Round 7.

Buffalo Bills

Gabe Davis: The fantasy community is buying back in on Davis just as draft season really heats up. Davis was named a team captain Thursday for the first time in his four-year career with Buffalo, a big sign of respect from his teammates. Davis is a player I love in best balls, but he has shown over and over that he’s not an every week fantasy starter. He’s boom or bust in a high-scoring offense. He led the league in targeted air yards in 2022 (and was ninth in 2021), but has posted only one 100+ yard game in each of his three seasons, despite several double-digit target opportunities.

Khalil Shakir: Shakir was a trendy sleeper pick a few weeks ago, and I count myself among those who got excited for the second-year receiver to emerge as the No. 2 behind Stefon Diggs. A rib injury held him out of the past two preseason games, which, combined with growing enthusiasm for Davis has caused Shakir to drop from fantasy relevance. Still a name to keep an eye on, but now undraftable in most leagues.

Denver Broncos

Jerry Jeudy: The hits keep coming for Denver’s wide receivers. This one isn’t as serious as originally feared, with Jeudy (hamstring) expected to return within the first month of NFL action. Still, that’s a hit on his fantasy value with a current eighth-round ADP. Whether you draft Jeudy will depend a lot on how much you trust Sean Payton and Russell Wilson to right the ship this season.

Marvin Mims Jr., Courtland Sutton: In the meantime, Mims is the biggest Broncos ADP riser as he’ll get an immediate chance to make a positive impression on his teammates and Denver fans. Known as a precise route-runner with quick bursts of speed, Mims should be Wilson’s go-to guy to start the season… a role that might be hard for Jeudy or anyone else to wrestle away. Sutton has a more “been there, done that” vibe from the fantasy community, but should see 8+ targets a game at least to start the season. In PPR leagues, he’s worth the ninth-round ADP.

(Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports)